Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner

This is also the one which was on shelf from quite some time. And glad that I finished it.

As the title suggests this is about how anybody can predict the future based on the knowledge of current events, and a little bit of digging. This gives the confidence that you don't have to be a maths genius or global policy expert or a head of so called think-tanks to predict about some future events.

The best thing about this book is that it gives you a framework, and gives a lot of examples how the actual participants benefited or found a solution.

I'm not really a fan of Tom Friedman but I did read two of his books which are around future predictions. He has an excellent writing style but I will agree to the point that a lot of things can go either way.

For a lot of people prediction is a full time job, and it can damage the reputation if their predictions turn out to be incorrect. The point is that this is not an absolute science, and even if there are signs in the favour of an event it can still not happen due to a lot of complexities being involved.

So you make them, and own them even if they turn out to be incorrect. Use them as an opportunity to fine tune your understanding.