Friday, March 29, 2019

The Rise and Fall of Nations by Ruchir Sharma

I've never been interested in economy works but I always look for numbers, and how it can be interpreted to define a real time situation.

Hence, I picked this book. It was a pleasant switch between this, and the previous book which I was reading in parallel. And I must say this has expanded my horizon of understanding how the things lead to a particular result. We can see a lot of things happening around us, and the innovation is keep on adding the pace to our lives which leads to a lot of changes.

One thing which always gets my attention is how factual the book is. There are no crystal ball readings but some profound conclusions from the trends. Not all trends end in same way but they definitely gave us a fair idea of the direction the needle is moving to.

The book broadly gives the 10 rules of  identifying the political, social, economic changes which can predict how the country is going to perform in next five years. It is clearly said that anything beyond five years will be more like a guess work. The forecasts or trends should not be for really long duration. We can work on policies or the basic tenets of the policy but it is better to avoid a long term prediction.

Time is one of those factors which we can't really measure in terms of how much is good enough. But a short term prediction based on historical trends can give us really close results.

The book is filled with a lot of data but not in a overwhelming way. If you're not a data person you can focus on the outcomes, and predictions. In fact, with the help of data you can actually put your thoughts around it, and connect with your own experience/facts from other sources.

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